ESSEC BBA INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
The investment case for Sanofi.
Start with the market’s verdict, then see what the numbers say.
€83.74
REFERENCE SHARE PRICEParis close · 06 Nov 2026
SAN · EURONEXT PARIS
01 / EQUITY RESEARCH +
02 / MARKET VERDICT
Five years. Two trajectories.
What if the market is being too pessimistic?
FIVE-YEAR SHARE PRICE COMPARISON
Sanofi Equal-weighted peers, rebased
THE 6 NOV COMPARISON
−€26
€83.74 for Sanofi versus about €110 had it tracked its peers.
The deck compares Sanofi’s 6 Nov close with the rebased peer benchmark at the end of the chart on 30 Oct. Price performance excludes dividends.
Source · Original chart, PDF p. 3. The replay traces the deck’s chart from 5 Nov 2021 to 30 Oct 2026. The equal-weighted peer basket uses local currencies and is rebased to Sanofi’s starting price. Historical closing prices confirm €79.74 on 30 Oct and €83.74 on 6 Nov.
03 / THE BUSINESS
Where the €43.6bn comes from.
Select a segment to unpack Sanofi’s 2025 revenue mix.
DupixentVaccinesOther medicines
Sources · PDF p. 2, Sanofi FY2025 results (29 Jan 2026) and Q3 2026 results (30 Oct 2026). Bloomberg FCF for 2025 is €7.2bn under its own definition (appendix 5).
04 / INVESTOR OBJECTIONS
Why investors hesitate.
Four concerns help explain why the market demands a discount.
01 / CONCENTRATIONDupixent patent cliff36% of FY2025 sales
Sanofi lists 2031 as the expiry year of Dupixent’s U.S. compound patent. The group retains a valuation discount to reflect the risk to earnings.
02 / VACCINESVaccines slowing down−6.6% in Q3 2026 at constant exchange rates
Vaccine sales declined in Q3 as group sales accelerated. A weaker second growth engine increases the importance of new medicines.
03 / EXECUTIONPipeline uncertaintyTwo pipeline setbacks
Sanofi discontinued amlitelimab development for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis in July 2026. The FDA issued a Complete Response Letter for tolebrutinib in non-relapsing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in December 2025. Failure of a key readout is an exit trigger in the group’s thesis.
04 / POLICYUS pricing and tariffsSector-wide exposure
US drug pricing reforms and tariff threats can weigh on European pharma. Their impact belongs in the broader sector backdrop for the comparison.
Sources · PDF p. 4 and appendix 7. Sanofi FY2025 Form 20-F (patents), July 2026 amlitelimab update and December 2025 tolebrutinib update.
05 / INVESTMENT THESIS
A cash machine priced
like a declining asset.
Year-over-year growth at reported exchange rates · +31.4% at constant exchange rates
2027e FCF yield
€8.9bn consensus free cash flow against €101.1bn market cap.
Buybacks since 2025
€5bn in 2025 and €1bn in H1 2026. The model uses a €4.29 dividend.
2027e EV/EBIT gap
Forward EV/EBITDA gives a 42% gap versus its 24% five-year average.
Sources · PDF pp. 5, 8–9 and appendix 2. Sanofi Q3 2026 results and Bloomberg EEB, FA and GF as cited in the deck. The Q3 2025 launch comparison is the group’s like-for-like calculation.
06 / VALUATION LAB INTERACTIVE MODEL
What is Sanofi worth?
Change the assumptions to calculate a hypothetical 12-month share price and compare it with the €83.74 reference.
MODEL INPUTS
IMPLIED SHARE PRICEMODEL OUTPUT · 12 MONTHS
PRICE RETURN
TOTAL RETURN
Total return assumes a €4.29 dividend per share, before taxes and fees.
Sensitivity heatmapDiscount × EBIT · select a cell to apply it
Formula and source notesOpen for Q&A
[Peer EV/EBIT × (1 − discount) × adjusted 2027e EBIT − net debt] ÷ shares outstanding
Base EBIT €14,537m · Net debt including minorities €14,241m · Shares outstanding 1,207.8m · Reference close €83.74 · Dividend €4.29 (FY2026 estimate, expected in 2027).
Using the deck’s displayed inputs, the central case calculates to €95.82 and +19.55% including the assumed dividend. At a 43% discount and unchanged EBIT, the formula gives €84.05, while p. 10 shows €83.70. The optimistic case calculates to €102.55, compared with €102.50 on p. 10 and €102 on p. 11. The five rounded peer multiples average 13.96×. The lab uses the deck’s 13.97× for the full group.
Sources · PDF pp. 7–11 and appendices 2–3. Bloomberg FA inputs dated 6 Nov 2026, as reproduced in the deck. The lab recalculates from those inputs.
07 / COMPARABLE COMPANIES
Choose the peer group.
Select companies to see what changes in the benchmark and price target.
| Company | 2027e EV/EBIT | EBIT growth | EBIT margin |
|---|
SELECTED PEER BENCHMARK
Source · Bloomberg FA and EEB, 6 Nov 2026, PDF pp. 7–9 and appendices 2 and 6. EV/EBIT compares enterprise value with expected operating profit. Novo Nordisk was excluded for its GLP-1 business mix.
08 / DOWNSIDE RISK
What breaks the thesis?
Explore the deck’s scenarios against the €83.74 reference.
ORIGINAL EXIT RULES
01 Discount widens beyond 48%
02 2027 EBIT forecast is cut by more than 10%
03 A key pipeline readout fails
Source · PDF pp. 10–11. The p. 10 unchanged-discount case uses 43% and consensus EBIT. The bear case on p. 11 adds a wider discount and a 10% EBIT cut.
09 / UPCOMING CATALYSTS
What could close the gap?
Five checkpoints over the pitch’s original 12-month horizon.
Source · PDF p. 6. Sanofi investor calendar and Q3 2026 pipeline outlook. The dividend and pipeline dates are indicative.
10 / THE FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION
Ready to take a position?
GROUP RECOMMENDATIONBUY SANOFI
12-MONTH TARGET€96
POTENTIAL TOTAL RETURN≈19%
New launches and free cash flow support the case for a narrower discount. The main risk is the expiry of Dupixent’s U.S. compound patent in 2031.
Source · PDF p. 12 and appendix 2. The pitch rounds the target and the dividend-inclusive return.
RESEARCH DESK / SOURCES
Open the evidence.
Original figures, cross-checks and assumptions from the ESSEC team’s 23-page deck.
Valuation cross-checks
At a 36% discount, the group reports €96 on EV/EBIT, €93 on EV/EBITDA and €92 on P/E. The dividend discount model gives about €78, or €79 including the one-off 2026 buyback. The DDM uses 8.2% cost of equity and 2% terminal growth in its central case.
Appendices 1–4 ↗Financials and longer-term risks
Appendices 5–7 cover historical results, 2027 consensus, peer growth and the group’s qualitative Dupixent scenarios after 2031.
Appendices 5–7 ↗Multiples, history and optional hedge
Appendices 8–10 include Bloomberg charts and the group’s optional equal-weight short basket of AstraZeneca, Novartis and Roche. The original recommendation is the long Sanofi position.
Appendices 8–10 ↗Conventions and discrepancies
The source’s historical discount uses forward EV/EBITDA. The current peer comparison uses 2027e EV/EBIT. The €4.29 dividend is the model’s FY2026 estimate, distinct from the €4.28 and €4.49 shown for FY2026e and FY2027e in Bloomberg’s summary. The 2025 FCF figures of €8.1bn and €7.2bn use Sanofi and Bloomberg definitions respectively.
Open the valuation formula ↗